Reconciliation’s cost

Not too long ago, President Marcos was bitterly unfriended by his UniTeam running mate.

Now, with his Alyansa candidates unable to dominate the Senate race, BBM says he needs friends and is ready to reconcile with the Dutertes.

As of last night, there was no response from the Duterte camp.

Negotiators say that one should bargain from a position of strength.

Marcos is talking peace from a position of weakness, following what he himself has admitted was the underwhelming performance of Alyansa. His approval ratings have also been sagging (although survey results are now being taken with a grain of salt).

Agreeing to a reconciliation isn’t going to come free for him. In fact, the price could be steep.

How much would he be willing to pay for again being a friend of Vice President Sara Duterte?

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BBM’s pronouncement last Monday is in fact consistent with his reply late last year, when asked if reconciliation with VP Sara was still possible: “Never say never.”

Whether the VP is in the mood for reconciliation, however, is another story. These days the pugnacious VP says she’s ready for a “bloodbath” in her impeachment trial. So far she has not said she has canceled the contract to have BBM, his wife Liza and favorite cousin the Speaker killed in case the VP herself is assassinated by Marcos forces.

The “never say never” was uttered last November, before the VP was impeached by the House super majority led by her bete noire she calls the “tambaloslos,” and months before her father dearest was bundled off to a prison in The Hague to face the International Criminal Court.

Even if ordered by the Philippine Supreme Court, BBM can no longer tell the ICC to send back Rodrigo Duterte. No return, no exchange.

In the case of the impeachment, it’s now in the hands of 24 independent republics in the Senate. Even if BBM tries to influence the senators’ vote whichever way, the nation will be watching the trial closely. He and the senators will have to contend with the court of public opinion, mindful of their political prospects in 2028.

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So what can BBM offer by way of reconciliation? As a gesture of goodwill, BBM may want to jettison some of those in his inner circle who are most hated by the Dutertes.

We all know the two worst enemies – not only of the Dutertes, but also of his estranged Ate Imee, who has won reelection.

Obviously, BBM cannot jettison VP Sara (and Senator Imee)’s Enemy No. 1: his wife. First Lady Liza’s disclosure in an interview last year that the VP had fallen out of her favor – “bad shot na ’yan sa ’kin” – was followed by a series of events that proved unfortunate for the Duterte camp.­

As a compromise, BBM can offer up his opponents’ Enemy No. 2: his favorite cousin, Speaker Martin Romualdez.

BBM may try to mend fences with Senator Imee, tapping her as the bridge for reconciliation with the Dutertes. Ate Imee, after all, was endorsed in her Senate bid by her BFF the VP and there’s no love lost between her and cousin Martin.

House allies of the Speaker have come to his defense amid persistent rumors that he will be replaced in the incoming 20th Congress by Navotas Rep. Toby Tiangco. The allies point out that Romualdez has the numbers and the super majority remains loyal to him.

But we all know that loyalties in that chamber can change literally overnight.

Tiangco, campaign manager of the Alyansa Senate slate, has come out swinging publicly against Romualdez, fueling speculation that Tiangco might have the blessings of BBM himself.

From the onset of Marcos 2.0, Romualdez has been perceived to be eyeing himself as BBM’s potential successor in 2028, with the VP being the biggest rival.

In so many words, Tiangco has lamented that Romualdez, in fighting VP Sara, expended much of BBM’s political capital.

These include the VP’s impeachment, in which her conviction will permanently bar her from public office. Tiangco swears that BBM genuinely considers the impeachment a bad idea.

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Internal surveys showed support for the Alyansa candidates sliding after the impeachment complaints were initiated, Tiangco said.

He told me over the weekend that the House leadership stopped the release of the Medical Assistance for Indigent and Financially Incapacitated Patients to the constituents of congressmen who did not sign the impeachment complaint. BBM had to order the release after being told about the complaints, Tiangco said.

More Alyansa bets fell out of the Magic 12, he noted, following the controversy over Congress’ mangling of the 2025 national budget, which critics say institutionalized grand-scale thievery. The issue is still with the Supreme Court.

In these issues, it was the President who took the worst political hit, Tiangco laments, adding that the House leadership failed to protect BBM.

By the time Digong Duterte was packed off to The Hague, heavy damage had been done.

I don’t know how much of these sentiments are shared by BBM, or if he has given his blessings to Tiangco’s public pronouncements against Romualdez.

As everyone knows, a credible whisper from Malacañang can unseat the Speaker.

Tiangco says he is not actively campaigning for the speakership, pointing out that this is up to the majority.

He texted: “Whatever the Boss decides, I follow, I don’t pre-empt my Boss and I don’t try to put pressure on my Boss, hindi ako ganun.”

Romualdez, on the other hand, has shown firm control of the House – something that a president may still find valuable for three more years. If BBM wants to jettison his cousin, he may pick a compromise replacement as speaker rather than Tiangco.

BBM has indicated a Cabinet revamp – something that is expected amid the performance of Alyansa and his sliding ratings.

A Cabinet revamp, however, is unlikely to appease the Dutertes. The cost of BBM’s proffered reconciliation will be higher. That is if he is serious about needing friends instead of more enemies.