2028 scenarios

With the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte seemingly in limbo after the Senate dribbled the Articles of Impeachment back to the House of Representatives, I can’t help but wonder how this will impact the 2028 elections.

The presidential polls are just around the corner, and the impeachment trial could make or break another Duterte presidency.

Here are possible scenarios:

If the impeachment proceeds, the trial of VP Sara will show that successful impeachment could be seen as a victory for constitutional checks and balances, reinforcing accountability. However, if perceived as politically motivated, it could deepen distrust in government and trigger unrest or retaliatory politics.

If the impeachment proceeds and VP Sara is removed from office, there could be a political realignment, as this would shake the Duterte political base and potentially weaken the influence of political dynasties. It could also embolden opposition groups and trigger a shift in alliances ahead of the 2028 elections.

If VP Sara is not impeached, it is likely that she will run in 2028 and win. This, in turn, will result in the continuity of Duterte-style politics and so much more.

If the third scenario becomes reality, President Marcos must be ready.

As they say, hell hath no fury like a woman scorned, or if I may tweak it: hell hath no fury like a Sara Duterte scorned. We’ve seen videos from her days as mayor, punching a court sheriff and, more recently, her viral video threatening to kill President Marcos, the First Lady and the Speaker.

If she becomes president, she will surely go after the Marcoses and others that the Dutertes feel contributed to their current plight.

Remember what Rody Duterte told Police Maj. Gen. Nicolas Torre, director of the police Criminal Investigation and Detection Group, who implemented the ICC arrest warrant? “My children will go after you,” he warned.

I can’t help but imagine a Godfather-like retribution because, as we all know, the Dutertes have been notoriously associated with violence.

If not a bloody retribution, the Dutertes may bring the Marcoses to court and make sure that they end up behind bars.

And the remains of Ferdinand Marcos Sr. at the Libingan ng mga Bayani? VP Sara may make good on her threat to dig out the late strongman’s grave and move it elsewhere.

We all know that history is replete with stories of retribution, especially from one administration to another.

For example, when Corazon Aquino won, the Marcoses were exiled. The family and their known cronies were slapped with multiple cases, some of which remain pending to this day.

During the time of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, ousted president Joseph “Erap” Estrada was charged with plunder after an aborted impeachment trial. He was detained at Camp Crame in 2001 and later placed on house arrest in his Tanay home for nearly seven years until Macapagal-Arroyo granted him executive clemency in 2007.

Similarly, when Noynoy Aquino came to power, his administration went after Macapagal-Arroyo. She faced charges of plunder and electoral sabotage following the Hello, Garci scandal.

She was detained at the Veterans Memorial Hospital for nearly five years – wearing that neck brace.

A court allowed her to remain in hospital detention in 2012 while she faced plunder charges.

Meanwhile, former Chief Justice Renato Corona was impeached and then convicted in 2012 for failing to disclose his full assets in his SALN. His forfeiture case was eventually dismissed.

In July 2016, a month after Rody Duterte became president, the Supreme Court dismissed Macapagal-Arroyo’s plunder case, and she was finally freed.

And then there’s Leila de Lima, the justice secretary during the administration of Noynoy Aquino.

When Rody Duterte won in 2016, his administration sent De Lima to Camp Crame to be detained on alleged drug charges. She was arrested in February 2017 while she was investigating Duterte’s “war on drugs,” the so-called “Davao Death Squad” and alleged extra-judicial killings in Davao.

For the duration of the Duterte administration, De Lima was in police custody and was only granted bail after approximately seven years.

Now, during Marcos 2.0, Rody Duterte was sent to The Hague on charges related to his bloody drug war.

Clearly, history has shown us the arrest of former presidents or those who represented their administrations, mostly as a consequence of retaliatory politics.

What happens next?

If history repeats itself, a Sara Duterte presidency will most likely run after President Marcos’ family and close associates based on whatever charges may arise.

Whichever scenario we see in 2028 though, I’m sure it is Filipinos who will suffer the most.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow her on X  @eyesgonzales. Column archives at EyesWideOpen on FB.