The president in 2028

One unintended outcome of the May 12, 2025 mid-term election is redefining the battle lines and changing the battle plans of presidential hopefuls in 2028.

The May 8, 2028 presidential election will be a redefining moment for Filipinos.

It will be the largest ever reckoning with the people, with up to 75 million voters, 60 percent or 45 million of them below 45, participating. The 2028 election will be a paradigm of three things:

One, continue with the past – the lamentable but popular era of Rodrigo Roa Duterte and his heirs to his legacy of violence, cronyism (remember Michael Yang?) and corruption (remember Pharmally? Sara Duterte’s Piattos chichirya? Pulong Duterte’s P51-billion pork?);

Two, give Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. a second chance and elect his anointed successor. Will it be first cousin, House Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez, 61?

Three, forge a new pathway for a new leader that combines the wholesomeness of legacy politics and the promise of a righteous and vigorous leadership thriving amid the uncertainty, technological marvel and challenges of the 21st century.

Today, Duterte’s politics is ascendant, with up to 40 percent identifying themselves with his flawed but strong brand, more than double that of Marcos Jr. Another 40 percent identify themselves as independent – neither pro-Duterte nor pro-Marcos and willing to try new faces.

Newly elected senator Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aguirre Aquino IV epitomizes the third option. He is the nephew of the slain opposition senator Benigno S. Aquino Jr. The first Benigno Aquino was a senator and was the father of Ninoy, Benigno S. Aquino Jr. (or the Second). Ninoy’s only son was Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, the president from 2010-2016.

Clean-shaven and with a striking resemblance to the late Ninoy, Bam was senator from 2013 to 2019 but lost his reelection bid. This year, he won handily, a strong No. 2 in the senatorial race, topping the elections in the largest provinces, including the fabled Lingayen-Lucena corridor where he trounced Bong Go, 10 million vs. 8.3 million votes, swamping nearly the entire Luzon and the Bicol peninsula, down to northeast Negros island, the Visayas and Palawan, and capturing portions of north, east and southwest of Mindanao, except central Mindanao.

Duterte was president from June 30, 2016 to June 30, 2022, a most violent peacetime era when up to 30,000 were claimed to have been killed by the police and their contract killers in a vicious war on drugs.

The killings projected a no-nonsense strongman image for Duterte but sent him into destierro to The Hague to face trial for alleged crime against humanity. His rough arrest on March 11, 2025 triggered a nationwide avalanche of sympathy that sent shock waves to the electorate as to elect Duterte’s top lieutenants, notably Bong Go, No. 1 senator, and Bato dela Rosa, No. 3 plus his own daughter’s handpicked choices for senator, Rodante Marcoleta (No. 6), Camille Villar (No. 11) and Imee Marcos (No. 12). That’s five Duterte loyalist senators.

In Pulse Asia’s April 2025 survey, Digong’s VP daughter Sara Duterte scored a 59 percent job approval rating, 2.36x President Marcos’ measly 25 percent. Sara’s disapproval – 16 percent; BBM’s disapproval – 53 percent. With BBM’s majority disapproval, his Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas coalition managed to win only six (five you exclude Camille Villar) of the 12 senatorial slots; Duterte backed candidates, four (five if you include Camille Villar) and independents, Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan, two.

In the remaining three years of his six-year presidency, Marcos can recover part of his lost popularity by delivering on issues closest to the people’s pockets – cheap rice (done, with rice now at P20 per kilo in many outlets), cheaper electricity and gasoline (done, with crude price down 26.5 percent from its July 2024 peak); more food supply (done, with a record rice harvest this year, 20.46 million tons, and better logistics for perishables like vegetables and fruits); improved transport system (DOTR’s Vince Dizon is moving heaven and earth); better quality education in public schools (a long haul); cutting red tape (another long haul) and stamping out corruption (this thing perhaps needs intervention of the Holy Spirit and a conclave by the cardinals).

Governance is 50 percent drama and 50 percent delivery. Digong Duterte was 100 percent brilliant on the first (drama), dismal on the second (delivery). What good did president Duterte really do? Crucially for his style of governance, BBM is deficit on both drama and delivery.

The presidential contest in 2028 will be an intense battle among young aspirants. They include Bam Aquino, 48, leading the pack by now, followed by feisty Sara Duterte, 46; House Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez, 61; Senate President Francis “Chiz” Escudero, 55; Education Secretary Sonny Angara, 52; Senators Mark Villar, 46; Raffy Tulfo, 65; Win Gatchalian, 51 and Risa Hontiveros, 59; and the youngest one, perhaps Pasig Mayor Vico Sotto, 35. And Bong Go, 50.

With 45 million young voters in 2028, the young at heart have an advantage over the young once in the fight for the presidential palace. This nation has a tradition of electing young presidents (50 or below). Young presidents usually do better.

Emilio Aguinaldo was 29 when he became president in 1898. Our equivalent of George Washington and Lincoln, the high school graduate and barangay chairman founded and united the republic. A product of his milieu, Aguinaldo was, of course, ruthless, killing two national heroes – Bonifacio and Antonio Luna. The man of the masses, the mechanic turned Huk fighter Ramon Magsaysay was the most beloved president at age 46. The longest serving, Ferdinand Marcos, Bar topnotcher and an intellectual, was president at 48. Warts and all, FM remains the best of our presidents.

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