How underdogs upset midterm projections, defying pre-election surveys
MANILA, Philippines — The 2025 midterm elections produced surprise victories that defied projections, with former senators Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan securing Senate seats despite lagging in pre-election surveys.
They were not alone—several candidates, especially independents and those from progressive groups, outperformed expectations.
On May 26, pollster Pulse Asia released its final survey, conducted from May 6 to 8, just days before the elections. The survey had not been published earlier due to data processing delays.
The polling firm acknowledged in its report that multiple candidates surpassed their projected performance.
“Several candidates—mostly independents and those affiliated with progressive groups—received a higher share of total votes than their pre-election survey standings indicated,” Pulse Asia said.
Former Commission on Audit chief Heidi Mendoza posted the biggest margin between poll projection and actual votes. While Pulse Asia had pegged her support at 5.8%, she secured 15.7% of the vote, according to data from the National Citizens’ Movement for Free Elections—a 9.9-point gap.
Progressive labor lawyer Luke Espiritu comes second in exceeding expectations. Pulse projected that Espiritu would receive 4.4% of votes but garnered 7.2% on election day.
Insight, not prediction
Political scientist Cleve Arguelles, president and CEO of WR Numero Research, explained that surveys are not meant to predict or dictate election outcomes. Numerous factors—campaign resources, political networks, and voter context—shape results.
“Some assume that surveys alone dictate voter behavior, but this is a poor understanding of voters,” Arguelles told Philstar.com. “Voters still have their agency, and they come from different contexts that shape their behavior.”
He added that surveys could be similar to a church's endorsement or a celebrity's support. Partisan actors who tend to blame surveys oversimplify their purpose.
“Blaming surveys alone oversimplifies the real challenges of building viable newcomer and reformist candidacies in a highly unequal electoral field,” he said.
Why did underdogs defy expectations?
Arguelles pointed to the evolving media landscape. Traditional TV viewership has declined, while digital platforms have gained dominance, possibly disrupting the tried and tested political startegies.
“Many of today's voters—six in ten are millennials and Gen Zs—consume media in ways that are completely different from previous generations,” Arguelles said. “They're also on Facebook, YouTube, TikTok, often following niche or independent content creators.”
Candidates like Mendoza and independent bet Col. Bosita already had sizable followings on social media.
Groundwork and messaging. Governance expert Gary Ador Dionisio, dean of the Benilde School of Diplomacy and Governance, observed that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s "Alyansa" slate failed to organize effectively on the ground or tackle key issues.
He said this year’s elections were more issue-based, and candidates like Mendoza, Aquino and Pangilinan ran on credible public service records.
If the likes of Mendoza build on their current momentum—by strengthening their messaging and grassroots presence—they could be serious contenders in 2028.
Sociologist Athena Charanne Presto, meanwhile, said frontrunners in surveys—such as media personality Ben Tulfo, who consistently ranked in the top 12—may have become vulnerable to political attacks.
Still, she noted that surveys can affect outcomes in various ways, either by becoming targets or causing more supporters to rally behind them.
Presto said that even though candidates like Espiritu are not officially aligned with opposition figure Leni Robredo, they likely benefited from support within the "Pink Movement."
Espiritu and Mendoza ultimately outperformed figures like incumbent senator Francis Tolentino and TV host Willie Revillame. Mendoza, in particular, emphasized her anti-corruption stance—an effective message amid growing public frustration over the high cost of living and perceived government excess.
“There’s no single formula for winning votes,” Presto told Philstar.com. “They also have to trust the electorate. The electorate will see what they've done, who they are, what they want to do, what they're trying to do, and the kinds of politicking involved in the Philippines.”
No clean 'awakening'
Arguelles, Dionisio and Presto all agreed that interpreting the results as a collective political awakening would be premature.
Presto cautioned that barriers to political choice remain—including vote-buying, election-related violence and voter intimidation. After all, at the local level, any political dynasties still retained power.
Still, Dionisio said the elections mark an opening for new leaders to emerge and challenge the status quo.
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